Large long one was out of a 3dr TD27 non-tubo manual.
Aha...we may be onto something. My large long one (

) (970mm) is also from a 3dr non turbo, both originally had the C200 rear axle.
On my parts shelf is a d/shaft from a 1994 turbo manual, with the H233 rear axle. Is is the same larger diameter/appearance as the original one, but measures 950mm center of yoke to yoke, exactly 20mm shorter. So I just installed that.
This could suggest that the diesel C200 trucks had the 970mm d/shaft, and the diesel H233 trucks had the 950mm d/shaft, both the larger diameter pipe. It also suggest that both the turbo diesel and V6 shafts should be the same length, just the tube diameter is different? And either should solve the issue?
Back to the speedo.... success! The mechanical gear went straight in, speedo cable straight back in, now the speedo works again

The install took 10 minutes.
EDIT: After comparing them closely, the 970mm C200 shaft is in fact slightly larger diameter.